What Awaits Arbitrageurs in the New Year: Forecasts, Trends, and New Opportunities

The New Year is always a time for plans, scenarios, and strategies. For media buyers in 2026, it will be a year of both adaptation and opportunity: changes in the advertising and tracking ecosystem will force many to rethink their usual setups, while opening new niches and tools for those ready to learn quickly and invest in technological resilience.

1. The End of Third-Party Cookies — and the Revival of Context

Three-quarters of the industry are already preparing for a cookieless reality, which affects retargeting, attribution, and audience targeting. There won’t be a single replacement — the market is shifting toward a mix of server-side tracking, first-party data, modeled attribution, and contextual ads. For media buyers, this means rethinking data collection and how you measure traffic quality and ROI.

Practical takeaway: start building server-side tracking infrastructure, set up first-party data collection (emails, signups, post-click events), and test contextual setups where behavioral targeting falls short.

2. AI and Automation — No Longer a “Feature” but a Core Tool

AI and automated scripts help split large test batches, optimize bids, and generate creatives on the fly. In 2026, AI’s influence will be even stronger: creative generation, automated landing-page matching, and dynamic audience segmentation speed up testing and reduce manual workload. This doesn’t replace human strategy but requires listening to metrics and handing over part of the tactical work to machines.

Tip: implement tools that can quickly scale winning setups (auto-tuning) and automate metric collection for fast manual validation.

3. Programmatic, CTV, and New Channels — Money Goes Where the Audience Goes

Programmatic and CTV continue to grow: brands are actively buying video placements and connected TV inventory, creating new platforms and formats for traffic arbitrage. Video — especially short, vertical formats — remains a strong driver of conversions, while simultaneously increasing traffic costs on popular platforms.

How to apply: test redirecting traffic to storytelling landing pages, adapt creatives for CTV/video, and use scripts that analyze view-through and other non-final metrics.

4. Supply-Path Control and Transparency — The Key to Survival

Media buyers are focusing heavily on supply-path optimization: advertisers are reducing the number of SSPs and demanding transparency to understand how their budgets are spent. For media buyers, this means that platforms and partners offering transparent stats and provable inventory quality will be preferred. New standards and APIs aimed at improving deal transparency are emerging.

Practice: work with verified SSPs/ad networks, keep logs, and prepare traffic quality proofs (screenshots, IP pools, landing-time metrics) — this will become a competitive advantage.

5. Nutra, Health, and Evergreen Offers — Stability in an Unstable Market

When the market is turbulent, ad budgets tend to shift toward proven verticals: nutra, health, legal finance products, and everyday consumer goods. These verticals provide steady demand and allow you to build retention-focused funnels. Meanwhile, demand for white-hat offers and transparent CPA deals continues to grow.

Tactics: strengthen your trust-driven creative line (expertise, testimonials), build post-sale funnels, and offset rising CPA through volume and CLV.

6. Mobile Priority and Live-Commerce — Where Attention Stays

Mobile traffic remains the foundation, while live-shopping and commerce-oriented streams have already become essential tools for growth campaigns. Platforms and formats that keep users engaged longer create more monetization opportunities.

7. Hybrid Attribution Models and the Rising Importance of Post-Click Metrics

Attribution is becoming more flexible: mixed models (last-click + modeled + incremental lift tests) are becoming standard. Media buyers who can run simple incrementality tests and break down metrics — CAC, LTV, retention, post-click data — will have an advantage when working with “smart” partners and brands.

Summary: Where to Invest Your Time and Money

Tracking infrastructure: server-side, first-party data, backup connectors.

Automation & AI: creative generation, auto-optimization, scripts for fast filtering.

Technological transparency: partners with proven inventory and clear supply-path clarity.

Creatives & format: video, storytelling, mobile- and CTV-adapted formats.

Stable-demand verticals: nutra, health, evergreen offers.

Final Note: Opportunities for Those Ready to Adapt

Yes, the changes will require resources and attention — but they will also open new opportunities. Those who invest in technological resilience, test new channels (CTV, streams), automate routine processes, and work with transparent partners in 2026 will be among the winners. The market is getting more complex, but complexity creates barriers — and for prepared media buyers, it becomes a competitive advantage.

In the new year, success will belong not to those who “do things the old way,” but to those who learn fast, automate smartly, and build long-term funnels.